Not the result we were expecting but at last it’s over....

After four months of inertia in the London property market, at least now we know the result of the EU Referendum and can move on. But what can we expect?

In the short term, we are likely to see some instability while both buyers and sellers take stock of their position. Older sellers of larger homes wishing to trade down might hold off until they feel the market is more in their favour. Fewer sellers create a shortage of stock and this should prevent prices from slipping.

Thinking back to the period post-Lehman Brothers in October 2008, the likelihood is that a weaker pound will attract overseas buyers which, in turn, will also help underpin prices.

If the Bank of England reduces their interest rate by a further .25%, younger buyers might feel there is never going to be a better time to enter the market, especially if prices were to slip further down.

Remember the property market always has a strong human element. We have the three D’s – death, debt and divorce. People do move for other happier reasons too – marriage, births and job relocation.

London will always remain as a wonderful city in which to live and we must not forget that anyone trading in the same market might lose out on the sale price of their home, but they will make it up on the purchase of the next, especially if trading up.

Perhaps the phrase ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ has become even more appropriate?

Matthew Kaye

Brexit - a thought for a new Chancellor?

After the tumultuous decision of 23rd June, is there a scenario that could result in a reduction in stamp duty?

There is no doubt that the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s decision to change Stamp Duty in the Autumn statement of December 2014 precipitated a slowdown in property transactions in London and the South East. This was further compounded by an additional 3% levy on second home purchases and buy to let investors this April.

Whilst the reason for these increases was laudable from a national perspective, it has unquestionably harmed London and, realistically, was it ever really going to help a first time buyer in prime central London?

Here is a possible scenario.

Given a sustained period of poor results for listed property companies, such as Berkeley Homes, Persimmon and Capco, together with a lack of investment in new developments, could a new Chancellor consider dropping the current punitive stamp duty levels to entice both owners and investors back into the market? Not only would this encourage high net worth individuals from around the world, including our old EU friends, to buy and invest in homes in London, it would have a positive knock-on effect for retailers, restaurateurs and other service related businesses.

London is the international destination of choice for so many people so let’s make them feel welcome and by doing so, encourage more investment into the greatest city in the world.

Adam Carey